everyone’s an expert: The Coin Flip Bracket
Wednesday, March 15th, 2006march madness is here, baby! people all over the country, whether they’ve ever watched a college basketball game or not, are making bold predictions with no basis whatsoever and getting up in each other’s faces about it (it’s really quite great). most people pick the winners of the games based on seeds. some people based on which team they heard a lot about. others, mascot toughness.
but this year, i’ve taken the guessing out of NCAA Tournament predictions. behold, THE COIN FLIP BRACKET. i have filled out an entire bracket based on the concept of HEADS (higher seed wins) and TAILS (lower seed wins).
to make this simulation SLIGHTLY more realistic, i decided to adjust for SEED DIFFERENCES as follows:
1) a seed difference of one or zero = one flip, 50/50 odds
2) other seed differences follow the simple rule:
(seed difference)/2 = amount of flips that MUST COME UP TAILS in order for the lower seed to move to the next round. if HEADS comes up at all during any of the coin flips, the higher seed wins.
EXAMPLE: (4) LSU vs. (13) Iona
(13-4)/2 = 4.5 ~ 5. TAILS must come up 5 times in a row for Iona to move on.
scoring is standard per all other bracket pools. rd.1=10pt, then 20, 40, 80, 100, 100. plus seed bonus (add seed number equivalent of points for each correct pick).
the completely filled out COIN FLIP BRACKET is below. it’s actually pretty messed up, as i’d never have UCLA or LSU in the final four, but whatever. check it out, compare it to yours. i’ll update accrued points as the games are played…




